NFL Betting Trends: Teams That Hit the Over, Under Most Often
Introduction
The 2022 NFL season was characterized by low-scoring games, with the league experiencing its lowest average scoring since 2017. However, there were still teams that consistently hit the over, providing an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on high-scoring matchups. On the other hand, some teams favored the under, resulting in games with fewer points. In this article, we will analyze the five teams that hit the over the most often last season and the five teams that favored the under. We will also examine the factors that contributed to their offensive and defensive performances.
Teams That Hit the Over Most Often
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings were the team that hit the over the most often in the 2022 season. With the eighth-highest scoring offense, averaging 24.9 points per game, and the fifth-worst defense, allowing 25.1 points per game, the Vikings were involved in shootouts. Playing in U.S. Bank Stadium, a dome, seven out of the nine home games hit the over, the highest rate in the league. The Vikings’ highest point total of the season was set at 51.5 in games against the Lions, and the over cashed both times. Even their lowest over/under of the season, at 42 against the Saints and Patriots, saw the over hit with ease.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles had a balanced approach, with a top-10 scoring defense that held opponents to 20.2 points per game and a high-scoring offense that finished third in scoring at 28.1 points per game. The Eagles’ games hit the over at a high rate, especially at Lincoln Financial Field (6-3). The highest regular-season point total for an Eagles game was set at 49.5 in a game against the Vikings, which they won with a score of 24-7, one of their lowest-scoring games of the year.
Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears had a below-average offense, scoring just 19.2 points per game, and an even worse defense, yielding 27.2 points per game, the most in the league. Despite their offensive struggles, the Bears went on a run of seven consecutive overs in the middle of the season. Their game against the Cowboys resulted in a whopping 78 points, one of the highest-scoring games of the season.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions were a team that had both a high-scoring offense and a defense that allowed a significant number of points. With the fifth-most points scored per game (26.6) and the third-worst points allowed per game (25.1), the Lions were involved in high-scoring games. Their shootout loss to the Seahawks, which ended with a score of 48-45, smashed the over/under of 48.5 points and ranked as one of the highest-scoring games in NFL history.
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals had an average offense, finishing 21st in scoring with 20 points per game, and a defense that allowed the second-most points in the NFL (26.4 points per game). Their games hit the over more often than not, with the Cardinals going on a run of five straight overs starting from a Week 7 game against the Saints.
Teams Whose Games Hit the Under Most Often
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans’ games often turned into low-scoring affairs, with their offense averaging just 17.5 points per game, the 28th-fewest in the NFL. Their defense performed relatively better, allowing 21.1 points per game. Most of the Titans’ games that hit the over were due to their opponents running up the score. The Titans only won one of the five games in which the over hit and lost the other four by at least two scores.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens had a strong defense that allowed just 18.5 points per game, the third-best mark in the league. However, their offense struggled, scoring 20.6 points per game, and the under hit in four of the final five games after quarterback Lamar Jackson’s injury. Their games often saw fewer points scored than expected, with three separate games totaling fewer than 20 points.
New York Jets
The New York Jets had one of the worst offenses in the NFL, scoring just 17.4 points per game. However, their defense performed well, allowing only 18.6 points on average. The under cashed in 10 of the Jets’ next 12 games, including five consecutive unders to end the season. Two Jets games saw fewer than 20 total points scored.
Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders had a top-10 defense, allowing just 20.2 points per game, but their offense struggled to score, averaging 18.9 points per game. Washington’s season began with two overs, but a regression in offense led to a run of four straight unders. Overs occurred sparingly as the season went on.
Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Rams
These four teams tied for the fourth-highest under hit rate in the NFL. The Denver Broncos had the league’s worst offense, averaging just 16.6 points per game, and the under hit in 10 of their first 11 games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, despite having the second-highest scoring offense in 2021, took a major step back and saw the under hit in 10 of their first 12 games. The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams also struggled offensively, with both teams averaging fewer than 20 points per game. The under hit in nine of the Saints’ last 10 games, and the Rams’ games leaned heavily towards the under despite their 22nd-ranked defense.
Conclusion
The 2022 NFL season saw a majority of games hitting the under, with teams struggling to put up points due to various factors such as offensive struggles and strong defensive performances. However, there were still teams that consistently hit the over, providing an opportunity for bettors to benefit from high-scoring matchups. Understanding these trends can help bettors make informed decisions when placing their bets in the next season. It’s important to consider both offensive and defensive performances when analyzing betting trends to have a comprehensive understanding of teams’ scoring tendencies.
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The image is for illustrative purposes only and does not depict the actual situation.
