Ukraine dam collapse triggers mass evacuation as floods sweep town

Ukraine dam collapse: Thousands flee floods after dam collapse near Nova Kakhovka

An Overview of the Situation

Thousands of people are being evacuated from the areas downstream of a major dam collapse in Russian-controlled Ukraine. The Kakhovka dam, which was seized by Russian forces after Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has been destroyed, leading to an imminent threat of catastrophic flooding to surrounding cities and villages. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that 80 towns and villages may be flooded because of the dam collapse and has accused Russia of destroying it. However, Russia denies the accusation and instead blames Ukrainian shelling. Both countries’ claims have not been verified by the BBC.

The Kakhovka dam has great significance in the region as it supplies water to farmers, residents, and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, as well as being a vital channel for carrying water to Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukrhydroenergo, the state-owned hydropower plants administrator in Ukraine, warned that the peak of a water spill downstream from the emptying reservoir was expected on Wednesday morning, which will be followed by a period of “stabilisation”. The situation has led to concerns about the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is Europe’s largest nuclear power plant and uses the reservoir water for cooling. Despite this, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said that there is “no immediate nuclear safety risk” for the plant.

The Impact of the Dam Collapse

The dam collapse has led to several towns being flooded and many people being forced to flee by bus and train. An estimated 40,000 people need to be evacuated, with Deputy Prosecutor-General Viktoriya Lytvynova estimating 17,000 people on the Ukraine-controlled territory west of the Dnipro River and 25,000 on the Russian-controlled east. Raising further concerns, the rising water levels have exposed landmines, which are posing a great danger to those in affected areas.

The situation has led to many locals expressing their fear of being flooded, with one resident from Kherson labelling it as a situation where “everything is going to die here”. Reports claim that some residents have been taken to the hospital, and valuable assets, such as the Kazkova Dibrova zoo on the riverbank in Russia, have been lost.

The Accusations and Plausibility

It is not clear what led to the collapse of the dam; however, Ukraine‘s military intelligence accuses Russia of intentionally destroying it. Considering Moscow’s fear of Ukraine‘s counter-offensive, this claim is plausible. Russia fears that Ukrainian forces would use the dam’s road to their advantage, as they did with bridges further downstream last autumn. Destroying the dam is, therefore, an effective strategy to hold off Ukraine‘s counter-offensive. On the other hand, a Russian official claims that Ukraine carried out the attack to detract from alleged failures in the counter-offensive and to deprive Crimea of fresh water.

The International Reaction

World leaders have laid the blame for the destruction of the dam on Russia, some calling it a war crime. The UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has said that if Russia is found to be responsible for the dam’s collapse, it would “demonstrate the new lows that we will have seen from Russian aggression.” The head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, condemned the brutal war tactics of Russia, while Charles Michel, the European Council president, expressed his shock over the unprecedented attack. The Geneva Convention prohibits targeting dams in war due to the danger it poses to civilians.

The Way Forward

The situation presents a challenge for both Russia and Ukraine, and any misstep could lead to dire consequences. It is an opportunity for both states to demonstrate their goodwill and avoid further escalation. Russia must engage with Ukraine and offer assistance to help minimize the damage caused by the dam collapse. Ukraine, on the other hand, should allow Russia and other international aid organizations to intervene, as the scale of the situation is beyond the Ukraine administration’s capability. If either side fails to demonstrate goodwill, the situation could worsen, leading to more significant destruction and humanitarian consequences.