Renewing American Leadership: Revitalizing the Global Order Through Grand Strategy

US Grand Strategy Can Prop Up the Global Order

Analysis

The recent conflict between Israel and Gaza has highlighted the fragility of the global order. However, the United States has the potential to prevent the collapse of the rules-based international system if it maintains a steady course in its approach to Russia and China. The biggest threat to this stability would be the return of Donald Trump as U.S. president. As the conflict in Israel continues, there is a risk that it could spread to other parts of the Middle East or divert the attention of the Biden administration from containing Russian aggression and Chinese threats. Despite this, global markets have remained relatively calm, suggesting that investors believe the conflict will remain localized. If the United States remains steadfast in its grand strategy, any new geopolitical risks should be effectively contained.

The rules-based international order, shaped by the victors of World War Two, was designed to maintain global peace and promote prosperity. While international treaties, such as the United Nations Charter, were a significant part of this system, it was ultimately dependent on American strength. Some argue that the current outbreak of crises is due to the weakening and internal divisions within the United States, compared to the era of “Pax Americana.” However, this narrative oversimplifies the complexities of the past. The so-called “American peace” only applied to certain parts of the world and was marred by conflicts such as the Cold War, the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, and multiple wars in the Middle East.

Today’s conflicts, while still devastating, have not reached the same level of intensity as those of the Pax Americana era. In fact, some countries are actively working to reinforce the rules-based order. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration has not only provided military aid to Kyiv but has also strengthened alliances with Europe and Asia. The U.S.-led Group of Seven has emphasized its support for the U.N. Charter and is working towards promoting sustainable growth in developing countries. However, the conflict in Israel poses a potential disruption to these efforts. If the conflict spreads to other countries, it could jeopardize the United States’ attempts to build alliances in the region. The U.S.’s decision to send weapons to Israel without conditions may also lead to concerns that the United States is complicit in any atrocities, which could undermine its efforts to gain support from the developing world.

Furthermore, the United States must navigate the simultaneous challenges of the Ukraine crisis, the conflict in Israel, and the rising threat from China. While U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan believes the administration can handle all three issues, there are concerns that political support for Ukraine is already waning. Some Republicans argue that the United States should shift its limited resources from Ukraine towards supporting Israel and Taiwan. However, Biden’s strategy of supporting Ukraine, despite the challenges, is the wiser one. Abandoning Ukraine would embolden China and raise doubts amongst U.S. allies about the United States’ commitment to their security.

Editorial

The United States’ grand strategy plays a crucial role in maintaining the rules-based international order. Despite the flaws and complexities of this system, it has provided a certain level of stability and prosperity to the world. The Biden administration’s efforts to strengthen alliances, support countries like Ukraine, and promote sustainable growth are essential in countering the destabilizing actions of Russia and China. However, the conflict in Israel poses a significant challenge to these efforts, and the United States must tread carefully to avoid further escalation and potential collateral damage.

It is crucial for the United States to demonstrate its commitment to the principles of the rules-based order. While the conflict in Israel is undeniably complex, and there are legitimate security concerns on both sides, the United States must ensure that its actions align with its stated commitment to the “law of war” and the protection of civilians. Sending weapons to Israel without conditions may undermine the perception of the United States as a neutral mediator, potentially damaging its relationships with countries sympathetic to the Palestinian cause.

Furthermore, the United States must not lose sight of its commitment to Ukraine. Despite political challenges and limited resources, the United States must continue to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression. Failing to do so would not only undermine Ukraine’s security but also send a message to China and other U.S. allies that the United States might not stand by them in times of need. Biden’s strategy in this regard is the more prudent one, and it is essential for the administration to secure the necessary political support and resources to effectively counter Russian aggression.

Advice

In order to prop up the global order, the United States should prioritize the following actions:

1. Maintain a steady course: The United States must stay committed to its grand strategy, which includes strengthening alliances, supporting Ukraine, and countering Chinese threats. Consistency is key in demonstrating a long-term commitment to the rules-based order.

2. Foster dialogue and de-escalation: In the conflict between Israel and Gaza, the United States should actively work to promote peaceful dialogue and de-escalation. This includes encouraging both sides to prioritize the protection of civilian lives and exploring diplomatic solutions to address the root causes of the conflict.

3. Uphold humanitarian principles: The United States should ensure that its actions align with international humanitarian law and the protection of civilians. Any military aid sent to Israel should come with clear conditions to prevent the misuse of these weapons or violations of human rights.

4. Strengthen partnerships: The United States should continue to build and strengthen alliances with countries that share its commitment to the rules-based order. This includes supporting regional organizations and initiatives that promote peace, stability, and sustainable development.

By implementing these recommendations, the United States can play a crucial role in propping up the global order and countering the challenges posed by Russia, China, and other malign actors. It is essential for the Biden administration to maintain a strategic vision and garner the necessary political support to effectively navigate these complex geopolitical dynamics.