Mali’s Climate Outlook: Tracking the Seasonal Changes in West Africa

Mali and West Africa Seasonal Monitor 2023: June Update

Situation Overview

The West Africa region, including Mali, is currently experiencing variable weather conditions as it enters the early stage of the rainy season. While some areas have received above-normal rainfall, others are facing abnormal dryness. The central Sahel, southern Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, and coastal regions of Nigeria have experienced below-average rainfall. These conditions have led to below-average vegetation and low water resources across most of the Sahel.

However, there is hope for improvement as short-term forecasts indicate that rainfall will likely increase in mid-June. This could alleviate the impacts of the early season dryness and create more favorable conditions for the start of the growing season. According to the PRESASS seasonal forecast, above-average to average seasonal rainfall is expected in the far western Sahel and central Sahel, which could result in good crop prospects. However, coastal areas of Gulf of Guinea countries may face average to below-average seasonal rainfall.

Potential Challenges and Risks

While the increased rainfall in the Sahelian strip could lead to better crop prospects, it also increases the risk of flooding, especially in areas where river levels are expected to be above average. Efforts are underway to prepare for potential floods in administrative areas located in high-risk river basins, such as the Gambia basin, the Senegal River tributary, the Inner Niger Delta in Mali, and the Chari River basins in Chad and the Central African Republic.

Furthermore, the ongoing El Niño events, with an 82% probability of development from May to July and an expected continuation through February 2024, could result in a shift in rainfall patterns in West Africa. This could have implications for agricultural planning and flood preparedness efforts.

Advice and Recommendations

Given the variable weather conditions in West Africa, it is important for countries in the region, including Mali, to closely monitor weather patterns and climate forecasts. Farmers should consider adapting their agricultural practices to account for potential changes in rainfall patterns. This may include implementing water conservation techniques, diversifying crops, and adopting resilient farming methods.

Efforts to prepare for potential floods should be intensified, particularly in high-risk river basins. Governments and international organizations should prioritize investments in flood protection infrastructure and early warning systems. Additionally, effective communication channels should be established to ensure timely dissemination of information to at-risk communities.

It is crucial for governments, regional organizations, and international partners to collaborate and share resources to mitigate the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security in West Africa. Long-term strategies should focus on sustainable land and water management practices, as well as the development of climate-resilient agriculture.

Conclusion

The June update of the West Africa Seasonal Monitor 2023 highlights the variable weather conditions in the region. While some areas have received above-normal rainfall, others are facing below-average rainfall and dryness. The short-term forecast indicates a potential improvement in rainfall by mid-June, which could alleviate the impacts of the early season dryness.

However, the ongoing El Niño events and the potential shift in rainfall patterns pose challenges and risks for agriculture and flood preparedness efforts in West Africa. It is essential for governments, farmers, and international organizations to adapt and collaborate to mitigate these risks and ensure food security in the region.